Car makers keep using emission pools despite European Commission emissions calculation change

Even with the European Commission’s (EC) proposed change to the way emissions are calculated, several car makers are still relying on emission pools to avoid hefty fines.

Earlier this year, Stellantis, Ford, Toyota, Mazda and Subaru said they would join Tesla for emissions accounting purposes. Now that “group” has gained two additional members: Honda and Suzuki.

Separately, Mercedes-Benz had already announced an emissions pool with Volvo, Polestar and Smart. According to Automotive News Europe, the EC has already approved all of these “alliances”.

Could a change in emissions calculations affect the strategy?

The CO2 emissions target to be met is 93.6 g/km, which-until now-would have had to be achieved during this year. That represents a 15% reduction compared with 2024 and a major headache for manufacturers to reach in such a short time. The reason is straightforward: the only workable way to hit the figure is by selling many more electric cars-something that is not happening, at least not at the required pace.

As a result, the European Commission has proposed a new calculation method that would use the average emissions over a three-year period. This would give manufacturers more time to comply with the targets and avoid paying end-of-year penalties for missing them.

Although the measure has not yet been made official-it still needs to go through the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union-everything suggests it will be approved, offering car makers some relief.

Even so, with the emissions calculation set to change, you might expect manufacturers to have less need to form emission pools-which improve the numbers. That does not appear to be what is happening, however, with more and more brands continuing to announce new partnerships.

Industry analysts say the sale of one electric car can offset the emissions of three to four petrol or diesel cars, which helps explain the rationale behind emission pools.

When the possibility of the new emissions calculation was announced, car makers had already confirmed that previously agreed emission pools would remain in place.

Tesla on red alert

While Tesla and Volvo could make millions from these pools, the outlook does not seem favourable for the US company.

Tesla has been posting a sharp drop in its European sales. In the first two months of 2024, the number of registered units fell by 42.6%, totalling 26,619 cars, according to ACEA data. If that trend continues, the brand may not be able to supply as many carbon credits as originally expected, which would reduce the profits from those agreements.

In 2020/2021, the sum paid by the former FCA (Fiat Chrysler Automobiles)-which joined Tesla for emissions counting-gave the American brand the funding it needed to build its factory in Germany.

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